Central Asian Future Dynamics of Coldwave and Cold Spell Under Changing Climate

ABSTRACT Central Asia (CA) has been warming steadily over recent decades, and the associated changes in climate conditions increase the need to understand how coldwaves and cold spells will evolve in the future. In this study, we examine changes in several coldwave‐related indices in five climate clusters, using Bias‐corrected CMIP6 estimates for the period 1992–2100 under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. The present analysis combines clustering, bias correction methods, and trend analysis to accurately capture spatial and temporal patterns. The results indicate a significant reduction in the number of coldwaves (CWN). In the near‐future (2022–2051), CWN is reduced by about 28%–36% under SSP2–4.5 and 31%–39% under SSP5–8.5. Northern Kazakhstan (Cluster 5) experiences a decrease of about −30.7% under the high emission scenario. At the same time, coldwave duration (CWD) increases across the region—by 19%–46% overall and by +67% in Cluster 3 (eastern Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) over the period 2100–2071 under SSP5–8.5. The cold season duration index (CSDI) also grows dramatically in this cluster, and it rises by approximately +265.6% in the far‐future. Cold events severity exhibits an alternative pattern. The intensity (CWM) and amplitude (CWA) of coldwave are decreasing on a near‐future basis (approximately −70% and −94% respectively) and largest on Cluster 5 (−47.0°C 2 and −136.2°C 2 ). Nevertheless, there is relative recovery in both indices towards the end of the century, particularly clusters 3 and 5, in SSP5–8.5. This trend points towards fewer but more persistent cold events. The projected changes align with a large increase in Tmax and Tmin. Cluster 1 and 4 have Tmax over 36.5°C and Cluster 1 has the most rapid change (to 35.6°C). Clusters 3 and 5 that have historically been colder and mountainous, also undergo significant warming. All results underline the necessity of specific adaptation efforts, i.e., use of frost‐resistant crop varieties and more efficient heating systems, so that the societies of CA might adjust to changing threats of cold extremes in the future.