Industrial Expansion Without Population Retention? Planning Tensions in a Shrinking Peri-Urban Village

Population decline is reshaping rural development and requiring village planning to balance land-use efficiency with changing community needs. This study examines planning-led land-use restructuring in Gushanqian Village, a shrinking peri-urban village in Shandong Province, China. Under the Village Spatial Plan (2021–2035), commercial service land was reduced from 9.35 to 1.66 ha and industrial land increased from 1.42 to 10.30 ha, while the total area of construction land remained unchanged. By integrating planning-document analysis with a questionnaire survey of 132 villagers, the study connects documented statutory land-use adjustments with residents’ multidimensional perceptions, residential retention intention, and overall planning satisfaction. Firth logistic regression was used to analyse retention intention, while multiple linear regression was applied to planning satisfaction, with age and residential status included as covariates. More favourable perceptions of planning information, agricultural space, ecological space, and residential space were positively associated with retention intention, whereas industrial expansion perception was negatively associated with retention intention but showed the strongest positive association with overall planning satisfaction. This divergence highlights that support for an industrially oriented planning direction does not necessarily translate into a stronger intention to remain. The case demonstrates the value of examining the social implications of stock-oriented land reallocation alongside its spatial outcomes and provides a non-Western basis for comparison in research on planning responses to rural shrinkage.