Self-reported cannabis use following cash transfer: Estimating the short-term impacts of the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend

Aims Researchers have hypothesized that cash transfers affect substance use through two competing pathways: relieving financial strain which could reduce use, or expanding spendable income, which could increase use. We tested whether payments from the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD)—a near universal annual payment to residents of Alaska—was associated with changes in post-PFD disbursement cannabis use in Alaska versus comparison jurisdictions. Methods We used data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) cannabis module in Alaska (2016, 2017, 2020, 2021) and other jurisdictions with recreational cannabis laws. Outcomes included past-month cannabis use (any), daily/near daily use, and days of use. Survey-weighted regression models compared each cannabis outcome during the post-PFD disbursement window versus other timeframes among Alaska residents relative to contemporaneous changes among residents of comparison jurisdictions. Results Cannabis use was higher among Alaska residents than in comparison jurisdictions with similar cannabis laws, both during and outside of the PFD disbursement window. In adjusted models, PFD disbursement was not meaningfully associated with changes in any past-month cannabis use (Odds Ratio [OR]: 0.96; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.66–1.41) or daily/near daily use (OR: 1.07; CI: 0.65–1.76). Similarly, no changes in past-month days of cannabis use (Count Ratio [CR]: 1.01; CI: 0.70–1.45) were observed following disbursement. Conclusions We found no evidence that disbursement of the PFD was associated with either increases or decreases in short-term cannabis use in Alaska. Whether these null findings persist for other substances, or under different program structures, remains an important question for future research.