LAB #2008 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.7% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.9% to 32.7% (+0.8pp, n=1034) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION phase filter would have excluded the XAUUSD SHORT at 4048.74 (loss) and likely the XAUUSD SHORT at 4051.79 (loss) if they fell in that phase, but would not have touched the AUDUSD, USDCAD, or EURJPY winners. Net effect on this small window: removing two losses from 10 trades shifts win rate from 5/10 to 5/8 (62.5% vs 50%), a +12.5pp apparent improvement — but this is noise, not signal, given n=8. PnL delta is positive but trivial in absolute terms, and the open USDJPY trade remains unaffected. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +0.8pp win-rate gain on ~1,000 trades is statistically marginal (p ≈ 0.15–0.2), meaning it could easily reverse. The filter risks overfitting to a specific quarterly regime label that may not persist, especially if "MANIPULATION" is defin Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com