A strengthening yet less extreme Atlantic–European jet during winter

Abstract The Atlantic–European jet stream is a key driver of weather extremes in Europe, yet its recent variability and trends remain poorly understood. Here we investigate daily changes in jet strength, tilt and latitudinal extent from 1725 to 2100 using pressure data from four European stations alongside climate model simulations. These indices explain about 40% of day-to-day temperature variability in Western Europe year-round. Weather extremes—including heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation and windstorms—are closely linked to the jet stream, and the indices also capture signals of sudden stratospheric warmings and major solar storms. Since the pre-industrial period, the jet has strengthened by 0.13 standard deviations and shifted poleward during the cold season. Future projections indicate continued strengthening in winter, while extremes in the indices become less frequent, suggesting a potential reduction in some types of weather extremes.