The impact and mechanisms of educational human capital on the risk of relapse into poverty: Evidence from Chinese micro-families

Educational human capital, as a critical driver of social development, plays an instrumental role in alleviating poverty and mitigating the risk of its recurrence. Drawing on human capital theory and utilizing data from four waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) spanning 2014–2020, this paper empirically examines the impact of educational human capital on the risk of relapse into poverty and explores its underlying mechanisms. The analysis employs panel data fixed-effects models, System GMM, and quantile regression. The findings indicate that: (1) Educational human capital significantly reduces the likelihood of household poverty relapse. (2) Mediation analysis reveals that this protective effect operates through three primary pathways: promoting non-agricultural employment among family members, increasing household income, and improving family health status. (3) Moderation analysis demonstrates that household investment in education substantially enhances the efficacy of educational human capital in mitigating relapse risk, whereas household health expenditure tends to attenuate this effect. (4) Heterogeneity analysis suggests that the marginal impact of educational human capital intensifies as the risk of poverty relapse rises, with the effect being more pronounced in eastern regions and urban areas. These findings deepen the understanding of how educational attainment influences poverty dynamics, offering empirical evidence and policy insights for developing countries aiming to consolidate poverty alleviation achievements and prevent poverty recurrence through educational strategies.