Projecting climate-induced river erosion for assessing future landslide susceptibility: methodological insights and lessons learned from five Swedish cases

Abstract Rivers worldwide are experiencing accelerating geomorphological change as climate‑driven increases in extreme precipitation and discharge intensify erosion, modify channel morphology, and increase landslide risk. This paper synthesizes more than a decade (2009–2022) of erosion projections used to support probabilistic geotechnical slope‑stability assessments along four Swedish rivers with high landslide susceptibility: the Göta River, Nors River, Säve River and the Ångerman River. The paper provides a synthesis of the applied methodologies and summarises key lessons learned and insights derived from these large‑scale assessments. It further presents a transferable workflow for assessing climate‑sensitive river erosion and associated geotechnical risks relevant to integrated river‑basin management and landslide risk assessment under changing climatic conditions. The work emphasises the need for interdisciplinary collaboration specifically across geomorphology, hydrology, sediment transport, hydraulics, and geotechnics. Case-specific findings suggest that, in rivers subjected to short-term flow regulation, the temporal resolution of discharge data can have a substantial influence on simulated erosion patterns. In heavily regulated systems, erosion associated with hydropower operations may, in some cases, exceed that driven by climate-related changes in discharge, potentially obscuring the effects of climate change. Projecting future erosion over the extended timescales considered in the present study is associated with substantial uncertainty. Consequently, recurrent and systematic monitoring, particularly through comprehensive bathymetric surveys, together with regular updates of the assessment, is essential. This is especially important in the event that a landslide were to occur. The results suggest that the analysis process needs to be dynamic and the management adaptable. By this paper, we hope to stimulate further research toward improving the integration of fluvial erosion processes into assessments of slope stability and future landslide probability, particularly in areas of high social vulnerability.