Can Common Recycling Targets Deliver Convergence? Evidence From EU Municipal Waste Recycling, 2004–2023

ABSTRACT The EU Waste Framework Directive sets common municipal waste recycling targets for all Member States, yet large cross‐country gaps persist. This paper examines whether EU‐27 recycling rates converged over 2004–2023, whether convergence stalled after 2018, and which factors shaped catch‐up. Using an EU‐27 panel, we combine sigma‐convergence, beta‐convergence, and the Phillips–Sul log‐ t test. Recycling performance became markedly less dispersed over the full period: the coefficient of variation fell from 0.810 in 2004 to 0.380 in 2023, the absolute beta‐convergence coefficient was −0.040 ( p < 0.001), and the Phillips–Sul test did not reject full‐panel convergence. However, convergence stalled in 2018. A Chow test identifies a structural break, while placebo tests show that the dispersion trend shifted from negative to near zero in that year. Using bilateral UN Comtrade data on pre‐ban exports of recovered paper and waste plastics to China, we test whether post‐2018 convergence varied with exposure to the Chinese import ban. Conditional beta‐convergence estimates show that the WFD compliance gap is strongly associated with catch‐up, but the relationship is nonlinear: countries with the largest gaps improve more slowly. This pattern is consistent with structural lock‐in. Greater landfill dependence was also associated with lower ESIF absorption rates, indicating co‐located structural and institutional barriers. As of 2023, only 6 of 27 Member States had reached the 2025 recycling target of 55%. These findings suggest that common targets support convergence, although the process remains vulnerable to external shocks and structural and institutional constraints.