LAB #1993 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.6% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.6% (+1.6pp, n=1350) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the pool-density filter (≥90) would have excluded the three rizzy5m trades that entered during low-density windows (GBPUSD SHORT, XAUUSD SHORT at 11:20, EURJPY SHORT at 10:35) — all three were losses. The remaining trades (EURJPY LONG, GBPUSD LONG, AUDUSD SHORT, GBPUSD LONG, EURUSD SHORT, USDJPY SHORT) would have shifted the live win rate from 3/8 (37.5%) to 3/5 (60%) on closed trades, with the EURUSD SHORT still open. Net PnL delta would be positive, roughly +2.5R, since the three excluded trades collectively lost ~2.5R. This is directionally consistent with the backtest improvement, though the sample is tiny. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the +1.6pp win-rate gain (31.9%→33.6%) is modest but could compound if the filter also reduces average loss size (by avoiding low-density, chop Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22684537
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
preprint

LAB #1993 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.6% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #1993 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.6% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.6% (+1.6pp, n=1350) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the pool-density filter (≥90) would have excluded the three rizzy5m trades that entered during low-density windows (GBPUSD SHORT, XAUUSD SHORT at 11:20, EURJPY SHORT at 10:35) — all three were losses. The remaining trades (EURJPY LONG, GBPUSD LONG, AUDUSD SHORT, GBPUSD LONG, EURUSD SHORT, USDJPY SHORT) would have shifted the live win rate from 3/8 (37.5%) to 3/5 (60%) on closed trades, with the EURUSD SHORT still open. Net PnL delta would be positive, roughly +2.5R, since the three excluded trades collectively lost ~2.5R. This is directionally consistent with the backtest improvement, though the sample is tiny. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the +1.6pp win-rate gain (31.9%→33.6%) is modest but could compound if the filter also reduces average loss size (by avoiding low-density, chop Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

LAB #1993 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 31.9% to 33.6% (+1.6pp — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS