Economic and Energy Drivers of GHG Emission Changes in the Transport and Storage Sector: Evidence from Selected CEE Countries

The aim of the paper is to assess the contribution of economic and energy-related factors to changes in greenhouse gas emissions in the transport and storage sector and to identify energy–carbon transition pathways in selected Central and Eastern European Union countries. The study covers Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia over the period 2014–2024. The analysis combines economic, energy, and emissions indicators with LMDI decomposition, Tapio decoupling, the Energy-Related Decarbonization Contribution Index, and the Energy–Carbon Transition Quality Index. The results indicate considerable cross-country differences. Strong decoupling was identified only in Bulgaria, while Czechia, Hungary and Romania showed expansive coupling and Poland and Slovakia showed expansive negative decoupling. Bulgaria followed an energy-use-related emissions-reduction pathway, whereas the remaining countries exhibited different emission-growth pathways. Transition quality improved in Bulgaria and Romania, remained relatively stable in Hungary, and deteriorated in Czechia, Poland and Slovakia. The results show that changes in transition quality do not necessarily coincide with changes in total GHG emissions.