An Observability Audit for Signal Claims

Applying one geometric reader framework (WCM) with a pre-registered sealingdiscipline to three unrelated domains — Argo ocean-climate signals, earthquakehypocenter-configuration anisotropy, and earthquake magnitude-distribution (b-value) change —we find the same diagnostic grammar locates where each signal claim stops being justified. In theocean, a real climate signal is lost at the representation stage. In earthquake configuration, noreadable signal is present at the operational resolution. In earthquake b-value, a signal survivesdevelopment, converges across two independent catalogs, and is then held at a fourth boundary:the independent future evidence required to confirm it prospectively did not accumulate withinthree independent unseen test periods. We formalize this as a Confirmability gate, extending thechain to E → A → B → C. The central claim is not that a signal was found, but that a generalmethod should identify the boundary at which a signal claim ceases to be justified —distinguishing different outcomes for different reasons rather than forcing a uniform answer. Wedid not upgrade a surviving same-direction effect to a positive result when the pre-specifiedinformation threshold was not met. Experimental design was cross-checked with reference to theopinions of other AI systems. ※ The License for codes is AGPL3.0-or-later