Creator-Supply Bubble Hypothesis: A Conceptual Model and Illustrative Scenario Analysis

This note proposes the creator supply bubble hypothesis. Layoffs and weak hiring may push some workers toward content creation, while artificial intelligence lowers production costs and raises output per creator. If uploads grow faster than human attention, the average attention available per item falls and creator income may become more concentrated. The same expansion need not benefit hosting platforms automatically. Video uploads create ingestion, transcoding, safety and copyright scanning, indexing, storage, and delivery costs; the stored content stock can continue growing even when most items receive little attention or revenue. The strong form of the hypothesis therefore predicts a dual burden: deteriorating expected returns for marginal creators and rising unmonetized infrastructure costs for platforms. Current evidence supports individual links in this mechanism but does not yet establish the complete causal chain. The note defines the model, distinguishes it from a financial bubble, states testable predictions, and proposes empirical designs capable of rejecting it.