Where Projects Fail: Geospatial Evidence of Delays and Cancellations in Chinese Development Finance

ABSTRACT Delays and cancellations can severely undermine the effectiveness of development finance. Yet, little systematic evidence exists on where and why these disruptions occur within the rapidly expanding portfolio of Chinese‐financed development projects in Africa. This paper analyses more than 3900 Chinese‐financed projects from 2000 to 2021 by combining project‐level information with regional measures of governance, conflict, development, donor presence and special economic zones. Separating delays at project start from delays at completion, we show that project design features and subnational institutional conditions are associated with implementation outcomes in phase‐specific ways. Corruption is associated with shorter start delays in cross‐sectional estimates but with longer delays at both the start and completion stages when exploiting within‐country variation over time. Co‐financing and Chinese involvement in project implementation are associated with longer start delays without a clear association with completion. Cancellations are more likely in regions with higher post‐commitment corruption levels and less common where multilateral donor activity and human development levels are higher, underscoring the importance of subnational governance and complementary donor engagement for project continuity.