Measuring crime concentration without police data: evidence from Suburban Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract This study examines crime in suburban Abuja, Nigeria, to assess whether the patterns of crime concentration commonly identified in developed contexts are also evident in an understudied, data-poor suburban African setting. In the absence of granular police crime data, the study utilised detailed, georeferenced door-to-door survey data from over 3,000 properties at the individual-property level, which were subsequently aggregated to street-segment and neighbourhood units. The levels of crime concentration were assessed using descriptive statistics, Lorenz curves and generalised G’ statistics. The findings indicate that crime is concentrated across all spatial units, assuming equal opportunity distributions within each unit. These findings are broadly consistent with previous studies from developed countries and suggest that place-based prevention strategies targeting high-crime locations may also be applicable in similar developing-country contexts.