How do policy-oriented land use pathways reshape the urban–rural gradient structure of ecosystem service supply and demand? Evidence from Beijing, China

Supply–demand imbalance of ecosystem services (ES) is a core challenge under rapid urbanization. Multi-scenario land-use simulation is widely used to explore coordination pathways, yet how alternative pathways reshape ES supply–demand equilibrium along the urban–rural gradient remains poorly understood. This study quantified how policy-oriented land-use pathways reshape ES supply–demand relationships across the urban–rural gradient, and located the spatial shift of their equilibrium point. Using Beijing, China as a case, land use was simulated for four 2035 scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Economic Development (EDS), Ecological Protection (EPS), and Sustainable Development (SDS). Supply and demand for carbon storage, habitat quality, water yield, and green space were fitted with S-shaped functions along concentric urban–rural rings. By 2035, BAU and EDS were dominated by built-up expansion, whereas EPS and SDS promoted ecological growth. Carbon storage and water yield deficits narrowed, while habitat quality deteriorated over 15-fold. Supply and demand followed S-shaped and inverse-S-shaped gradients, with inflection points at 18–22.5 km. The equilibrium point contracted from 26.18 km (2020) to 18.85–22.99 km (2035), with EPS the greatest (7.33 km, 28.0%). Locating the equilibrium point transforms the urban–rural gradient from a descriptive pattern into a measurable management target. Its consistent inward shift shows that ecology-oriented policies relocate, rather than eliminate, supply–demand imbalance. We recommend a gradient-coupled strategy-demand reduction in cores, conversion control in transition zones, and baseline conservation in peripheries—using the equilibrium radius as a governance benchmark.