Corporate Climate Risk Attention and Carbon Lock-In: Sustainable Decarbonization Pathways in an Era of Climate Extremes

Climate extremes and the accelerating low-carbon transition have intensified firms’ exposure to physical and transition risks, yet many firms remain constrained by carbon-intensive development paths. Using panel data for Chinese A-share listed firms from 2013 to 2024, we examine the relationship between corporate climate risk attention (CRA) and corporate carbon lock-in (CCL). CRA is derived from annual-report text, and CCL is measured with a multidimensional index. Fixed-effects estimates show that CRA is significantly and negatively associated with CCL, and this association remains stable across robustness checks. Mediation-style analyses identify statistical indirect associations through green strategic orientation and corporate environmental investment. Subgroup comparisons show that the negative CRA–CCL association is stronger among heavily polluting firms, firms in cities experiencing frequent extreme climate events, and firms in provinces with less stringent environmental regulation. These findings link organizational attention to firm-level carbon unlocking and suggest that climate concerns should inform strategic priorities and environmental investment. They inform transition governance tailored to firms’ transition pressures, local climate risks, and regulatory conditions.