Unraveling technology, emission-scenario, and temporal drivers of future offshore wind energy yield over the Indian EEZ

Abstract Assessments of future offshore wind energy often rely on climate-model projections. Harnessable energy depends not only on the atmospheric circulation, which is captured in the climate model projections, but also on the turbine technology. This study estimates offshore wind energy over the Indian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by combining bias-adjusted CMIP6 wind projections with turbine-specific annual energy yield (AEY) modelling and a driver-separation framework. This study quantifies relative contributions of turbine technology considering long-term climate change and emission scenarios. Harnessable AEY was estimated for six offshore wind turbine configurations with capacities varying between 5–15 MW under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)245 and SSP585 scenarios. Findings suggest that high-quality offshore wind resources are largely maintained under future climate conditions. Minor variations in the resource quality primarily associated with increased wind variability rather than systematic reductions in mean wind speed. AEY decreases across parts of the Arabian Sea, whereas portions of the Bay of Bengal remain stable or show slight improvements. Among the three drivers examined, turbine technology exhibits the largest influence. Projected AEY is approximately 30–33% higher, while the difference between SSP245 and SSP585 remains below ±1%. In contrast, long-term wind-climate change has a moderate impact. Equivalent observations are witnessed across all ten CMIP6 climate models. Findings of this study aid decision makers for long-term offshore wind planning in India.