Assessing the future of food security under trade and production risks in the United Arab Emirates

Abstract Contemporary agrifood systems increasingly depend on global trade and value chains. While these connections improve food access, they also increase exposure to geopolitical conflict, export restrictions, market volatility, and supply-chain disruptions, particularly in import-dependent countries. The UAE exemplifies this exposure because it meets most of its cereal demand through imports, making its cereal security sensitive to instability in global markets. Given this exposure, we applied a stakeholder-informed exploratory scenario-planning approach to explore plausible futures for UAE cereal security through 2050. The scenario-planning process began with an initial review of relevant academic publications and official reports. Thirty-five stakeholders then participated in a structured online survey, an online driver-sorting exercise, and a validation workshop. Responses informed driver assessment, system mapping, and scenario development. Workshop participants then refined the scenarios and identified desirable futures and potential strategies. The analysis initially identified 85 drivers, which were refined into 30 distinct drivers. Global trade stability and domestic cereal production capacity received the highest importance and uncertainty ratings and formed the axes of the scenario matrix. Their combination produced four plausible scenarios: Vulnerable Dependence, System Shock, Adaptive Sufficiency, and Strategic Surplus. The Strategic Surplus scenario was stakeholders preferred future for UAE cereal security. Progress toward this future requires expanding water-efficient domestic production and diversifying import sources and routes. More broadly, the findings suggest that arid, import-dependent regions require integrated cereal resilience strategies combining water-efficient production, agricultural research and innovation, trade diversification, and stronger coordination across the cereal supply chain.