Research on the evolution and driving mechanisms of watershed water resource resilience under multi-factor interactions: A case study of the Shiyang River Basin

To address the disturbances posed by uncertainty factors to water resource systems, this study constructs a multidimensional resilience evaluation index system encompassing stability, resistance, and recoverability, and proposes the System Coordination and Factor Interaction-based Resilience Evaluation Model (SCFI-REM). By integrating fuzzy set pair analysis, coupling coordination degree modeling, gravity center migration, and Geodetector, the proposed model systematically reveals the driving mechanisms of water resource resilience. Taking the Shiyang River Basin as a case study, we evaluate the temporal evolution and influencing factors of water resource resilience from 2013 to 2023. Results show that the basin's resilience remains at a low-to-medium level, characterized by weak coordination and high sensitivity to short-term hydrological fluctuations. The spatial center of resilience shifts northeastward before stabilizing, reflecting a pattern of low-level fluctuations coexisting with localized improvements. Total water resources show the highest explanatory power (q = 0.71), indicating the strongest statistical association with resilience. All detected driving factors in this study demonstrate dual-factor enhancement interactions, with particularly strong interactions observed between external water transfers, reservoir water supply, industrial structure, and water use efficiency. This study elucidates the formation mechanism of basin resilience under multi-factor synergies, providing a scientific basis for water resource regulation and sustainable management in arid inland river basins.