Decarbonization Roadmap: Prioritized Mitigation Hierarchy in the Paint and Coating Industry

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from chemical manufacturing present substantial operational, compliance, and competitive challenges under international climate accords and emerging regulatory frameworks, including the European Union Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This study provides an empirically grounded, multi-site decarbonization framework combining longitudinal quarterly operational datasets collected from 14 industrial coating manufacturing facilities (2024–2025) with an audited baseline manufacturing facility producing 35,640 metric tonnes annually. Lifecycle GHG accounting reveals that upstream raw material procurement and synthesis (Category 4) dominate the value-chain carbon footprint, contributing 89.48% (172,557 tCO2e) of the total 192,834 tCO2e baseline organizational footprint. In contrast, direct stationary combustion (Category 1) and purchased electricity (Category 2 location-based) account for only 0.89% (1711 tCO2e) and 2.46% (4741 tCO2e), respectively. To resolve implementation trade-offs, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework integrates annual carbon abatement potential, Technology Readiness Level (TRL), capital intensity, and payback dynamics to establish a prioritized Six-Tier Decarbonization Hierarchy: Tier 1 (Priority 1)—upstream bio-based resin and binder substitution, delivering an estimated baseline reduction of 25,880–60,050 tCO2e/year (13.4–31.1% of baseline emissions); Tier 2 (Priority 2)—drop-in bio-based and circular solvent replacement, achieving 4820–9640 tCO2e/year (2.5–5.0% baseline reduction); Tier 3 (Priority 3)—thermal process electrification via high-temperature industrial heat pumps (COP 2.5–3.1), eliminating 1027–1369 tCO2e/year; Tier 4 (Priority 4)—contractual and on-site renewable electricity procurement via corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and solar PV (4490–4741 tCO2e/year; 2.3–2.5% baseline reduction); Tier 5 (Priority 5)—systemic formulation transitions to waterborne, high-solids, and powder coating architectures (15,000–35,000 tCO2e/year); and Tier 6 (Priority 6)—stream-conditional Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), strictly restricted to concentrated combustion stacks (CO2 ≥ 8 vol%) and excluded from dilute post-thermal oxidizer off-gases (CO2 ≤ 1–4 vol%) where capture is economically unviable ($180–$260/tCO2e).