The impact of remittances on household food security in Uganda using propensity score matching

This study examines the impact of remittance receipt on household food security in Uganda, contributing to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). The analysis uses data from the 2024 Uganda National Population and Housing Census (NPHC), based on a publicly available 10 percent sample of 1,033,358 households, and measures food security using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES). A Propensity Score Matching (PSM) approach estimates the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) while controlling for observable selection bias, with results disaggregated into young, prime-age, and elderly-headed households alongside a pooled model. After matching, the analytic sample comprised 32,760 households, a substantial reduction from the original sample that is discussed with respect to external validity. Findings show remittance receipt is associated with an increase in the probability of food security across all groups, with estimated effects ranging from about 2.1 to 4.6 percentage points, with the largest gains among elderly-headed households. Logistic regression confirms higher odds of food security among remittance recipients, with stronger effects among older households. Education and land ownership improve food security, while poverty, disability, and regional disparities reduce it. Because PSM addresses observable but not unobserved heterogeneity, findings are interpreted as robust associations rather than definitive causal impacts. The study concludes that remittances act as an income buffer for vulnerable households and recommends reducing transfer costs, expanding formal remittance channels, and integrating remittances into national food security policy in support of SDG 2 and SDG 10.