Spatial Pattern of Bush Burning Impacts and Crop Loss Severity in Nigeria's Forest-Savanna Transition Zone

Bush burning remains one of the most persistent environmental and agricultural challenges in Nigeria's forest–savanna transition zone, with significant implications for agricultural productivity, food security, rural livelihoods, environmental sustainability, and human well-being. This study assessed the spatial patterns of bush-burning impacts and croploss severity in Kwara South Senatorial District, Nigeria. Primary data were collected using a multi-stage sampling approach. Five bush-burning-prone settlements were purposively selected from six of the seven Local Government Areas (LGAs), while only one settlement was selected from Offa LGA due to its limited agrarian communities, resulting in 31 sampled settlements. Through the snowball sampling technique, five crop farmers were selected from each settlement, giving a total sample of 155 respondents. Data were collected using structured questionnaires and analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson's Chi-square test, and oneway Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). The findings revealed that bush burning substantially reduced crop output (96.8%) and farm income (93.5%), discouraged farm expansion (88.4%), caused significant losses of food and tree crops (72.9%), increased soil erosion (53.5%), and exposed rural residents to injuries and various health challenges. Inferential analyses indicated significant spatial variations in several impact indicators, including fear of farm expansion, crop losses, soil erosion, and health-related effects (p < 0.05). Crop-loss severity analysis further showed that perennial cash crops suffered the greatest damage, with cashew (72.9%) and cocoa (65.8%) recording the highest proportions of high and very high losses, followed by yam (49.0%). Significant spatial differences were observed for cassava and yam (p < 0.05), whereas severe losses in cashew and cocoa were widespread across the district. The study recommends integrated fire management, community-based surveillance, environmental education, and sustainable land-management practices to reduce crop losses and strengthen rural resilience