Crisis-Induced Renewable Energy Transition in the MENA Region: Panel Difference-in-Differences Evidence from Jordan’s 2011 Gas Supply Collapse

Whether energy-supply crises accelerate decarbonisation or reinforce fossil-fuel dependence remains an open empirical question, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study examines the 2011 collapse of Egyptian natural gas exports to Jordan, caused by repeated attacks on the Arab Gas Pipeline, as a sudden and largely exogenous energy-security shock. Using harmonised annual electricity-generation data from Ember for six MENA and Mediterranean countries from 2000 to 2022, a panel difference-in-differences framework estimated by two-way fixed effects assesses how Jordan’s renewable electricity share evolved relative to a comparison group. The evidence indicates a delayed rather than immediate response. Event-study estimates show little change between 2012 and 2016, followed by a marked divergence reaching approximately 16 percentage points by 2022. The full-period average difference is 4.22 percentage points (95% CI −2.93 to 11.37), while the later divergence persists across leave-one-country-out specifications and when renewable generation is normalised by pre-crisis system size. Fuel concentration changed little, because Jordan replaced a gas-and-oil generation mix with a gas-and-renewables mix, a shift consistent with a compositional improvement in energy security through reduced fossil-fuel import exposure rather than greater diversification. Energy crises may, therefore, open opportunities for renewable transitions, but their realisation appears contingent on institutional capacity.