Industrial robot adoption and marriage market transformation: evidence from China

This paper examines whether industrial robot adoption affects marriage formation in China. Using micro-level data from the China Family Panel Studies for 2010–2020 matched with a city-level measure of robot exposure, we find that greater robot exposure significantly reduces the probability of marriage formation. Further analysis shows that industrial robots asymmetrically reshape the labour-market positions of men and women, thereby altering relative economic position and marriage incentives. The effect operates through three channels: stronger incentives for human-capital investment, gender-differentiated labour-market adjustment, and occupational reallocation. The negative effect is more pronounced among high-income individuals, younger cohorts, migrants, and residents of cities with weaker manufacturing bases, indicating that the marriage consequences of automation extend beyond direct low-skilled manufacturing displacement. More flexible employment arrangements, stronger social protection, and more egalitarian gender norms mitigate the adverse effect. Overall, the findings show that industrial robots affect marriage formation through broader labour-market restructuring.