Empirical analysis of the impact of climate change on food and water security in Saudi Arabia

Abstract Even though climate change poses significant risks to food and water security, little attention has been paid to the dynamics of short- and long-term interactions between these two dimensions, especially in the context of Saudi Arabia. This paper aims to assess the influence of variations in climate parameters such as temperature, precipitation, and drought on food security (defined as agricultural output and food imports) and water security (measured by water consumption and groundwater levels) using annual data for 1990–2023. A vector error correction model (VECM) used to explore short-run dynamics and long-run relationships between the selected variables. Moreover, the Granger causality test applied to identify causalities within the food-water-climate nexus. According to the empirical findings, a one-degree centigrade increase in temperature decreases agricultural output by 0.28%, while a one-millimeter increase in precipitation contributes to a 0.31% growth in agricultural production. Additionally, the increase in drought frequency by one unit causes a rise in food imports by 0.41%, while an increase in water use by one unit contributes to a 0.39% fall in the underground water level. These results underscore the sensitivity of the Saudi Arabian food and water systems to climate change. It is therefore necessary for policymakers to embrace climate-resilient agriculture, enhance irrigation techniques, and diversify sources of food imports.