New estimates show the first decline in California’s organic share of cropland

Building on the historic leadership of California farmers in organic agriculture, statewide climate mitigation goals include increasing organic production to 20% of all cropland by 2045. The focus on cropland reflects the increased opportunity to reduce synthetic additives as compared to animal production. However, existing data limitations obscure the relative contribution of crops and animal agriculture to trends in organic production in California. Using anonymized data on organic production from the State Organic Program, the USDA Census of Agriculture, and California’s top organic certifier (CCOF), we developed statewide and county-level estimates of organic cropland and animal production. These estimates show a disproportionate growth of organic animal production over time, especially since 2014, and an overall drop in organic cropland acreage share in recent years. We estimate that only 4.5% of all California cropland is organic as of 2022. To meet the statewide organic target, policy changes are needed to restart the expansion of organic cropland. Further, improving State Organic Program data is critical for evaluating progress toward this goal.