Trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Kazakhstan and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a national health data analysis

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. While the impact of COVID-19 on trends is recognized, it is uncertain whether these patterns continued into the third pandemic year. This study sought to investigate the mortality patterns of CVDs during 2014–2022. We utilized data from Kazakhstan’s Unified National Electronic Health System and performed a descriptive data analysis. The authors employed Bayesian Structured Time Series and Joinpoint regression analyses to evaluate CVD-related mortality patterns over time. The study cohort included 240,036 patients with CVD-related deaths from 2014 to 2022. The leading causes of death were cerebrovascular disease (37.89%), ischemic heart disease (34.61%), and inflammatory heart disease (9.56%). The analysis identified that death patterns rose by 47% starting from 2020; however, during the third COVID-19 year, the trends decreased by 17% (95% CI: -26% to -4%). Despite increasing trends in the early years of the pandemic, death rates declined significantly in the third year.