Climate-Driven Changes in Potential Suitable Habitats of Moso Bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis) in China: An Optimized MaxEnt Approach

Phyllostachys edulis (Moso bamboo) is a subtropical bamboo species endemic to China and holds substantial economic and ecological value. Ongoing climate change is reshaping the geographic distribution of its suitable habitats. To reveal these climate-driven dynamics, we calibrated the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model using the ENMeval R package version 4.5.2 and evaluated model robustness via spatially independent block cross-validation. We identified nine critical environmental predictors to model spatiotemporal variations in suitable habitats for Moso bamboo, examining both present-day climate and four future periods under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Model performance was optimized at regularization multiplier (RM) of 1.5 with the feature class combination LQHPT, yielding a spatial validation AUC of 0.9104 and robust predictive capacity. Environmental controls were dominated by mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11, 63.9% relative contribution) and precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17, 31.2%), while soil clay and organic carbon content modulated suitability at local scales. Under current conditions, the total suitable habitat area encompasses approximately 218.88 × 104 km2, with the majority distributed throughout the subtropical zone of southeastern China. Under nearly all future scenarios, high-suitability habitats showed a general contracting trend of 20.94%–95.29% relative to the current baseline, while moderate-suitability habitats exhibited a fluctuating expansion trend, reaching a peak increase of 47.90% in the 2030s under SSP585, but contracted by 18.65% in the 2090s. Meanwhile, habitat centroids underwent small-scale oscillatory shifts in multiple directions and remained entirely within Hunan Province across all periods. MESS analysis confirmed that 90.60%–99.82% of China’s land area fell within climate-analogous ranges, indicating low extrapolation risk for core habitat projections. Core climate refugia with high cross-scenario stability were primarily concentrated in the traditional bamboo-producing regions of southeastern China. This study provides a scientific basis for the sustainable management of Moso bamboo resources, biodiversity conservation, and ecological risk prevention in the context of ongoing climate change.