A regional framework for linking dust-source zones in Iraq to downwind impact in Kuwait using eco-hydro-drought indicators

Dust emissions from Iraq are a major environmental issue affecting Kuwait and other countries in the Arabian Gulf. This study develops a regional framework for identifying potential dust-emission zones in Iraq using indicators of drought, vegetation cover, surface water, and water-transition dynamics. Terra MODIS products MOD13Q1 V6 and MOD44W V6 at a 250 m spatial resolution from 2000 to 2015 were used to assess vegetation coverage and surface water dynamics across 14 hydrologically classified zones in Iraq, considering five land utilization classes. Suspended dust was the most frequently recorded dust event type. It showed the strongest associations with Iraqi land surface variables (R 2 = 0.966), followed by dust storm (R 2 = 0.417), while rising dust showed the weakest relationship (R 2 = 0.156), suggesting that local meteorological conditions predominantly control it. Based on interactions among vegetation, surface water, water transition classes, and dust events, five potential dust-prone zones were identified and ranked by environmental sensitivity: Zone 10-S, Zone 10-M, Zone 9, Zone 12, and Zone 4. Zone 10-S in southern Iraq exhibited the highest dust emission potential. Vegetation coverage showed strong positive correlations with the Mesopotamian marshes, surface water extent, rainfall, and Hammar Lake, while displaying negative correlations with suspended dust activity. The findings suggest that ephemeral and seasonal water surface, combined with upstream water extraction and poor water management, may contribute to vegetation degradation and increased dust emissions. The study highlights the importance of conducting finer-scale investigations within identified hotspot regions to support vegetation restoration and regional dust mitigation strategies.