Strategic Mobility under Constraint: Policy, Risk, And Migration Decision-Making Among Nigerian Skilled Migrants

This paper examines how skilled migration is shaped by risk, policy constraints, and migrant decision-making before departure. Drawing on behavioural geography, the New Economics of Labour Migration (NELM), and migration systems theory, it studies how Nigerian professionals evaluate migration pathways to the United Kingdom and Canada. Using a mixedmethods sequential explanatory design, the study combines survey data (N = 430) with in-depth interviews (n = 80). The findings reveal clear differences in pre-migration strategies. Migrants heading to Canada tend to possess higher levels of education and financial resources, reflecting the selectivity of the points-based system. In contrast, UK-bound migrants are more likely to utilise accessible but temporary pathways, often accepting greater uncertainty. The results show that migration systems influence decisions before movement by shaping access to legal routes, risk exposure, and expectations of future stability. While Canada-bound migrants prioritise long-term security, UK-bound migrants are more inclined toward rapid exit despite limited guarantees. The study demonstrates that migration systems function as anticipatory selection environments, shaping who migrates and how. By focusing on pre-migration decision-making, it offers a more grounded understanding of how policy environments structure migrant agency within unequal global mobility systems