The moderating role of effectuation on the relationship between causation and internationalization of export SMEs: a multi-dimensional perspective

Purpose This study aims to investigate whether, and under what conditions, effectuation complements causation in shaping the internationalization of small and medium-sized export firms. It examines the direct effects of causation on five dimensions of internationalization – operation mode, market scope, product adaptation, timing and performance – and tests whether four effectual mechanisms – experimentation, affordable loss, flexibility and precommitment – condition those effects in an emerging economy context. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional survey design was used with Thai manufacturing export firms. Data were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling to examine direct relationships between causation and internationalization dimensions, and moderating effects of effectuation components including experimentation, affordable loss, flexibility and precommitment. Findings Causation is positively associated with product adaptation and with longer internationalization timelines, but not with operation mode, market scope or international performance. Contrary to the expectation that experimentation, affordable loss and precommitment would each strengthen causation across all five dimensions, only selected mechanisms do so. Experimentation strengthens the effects of causation on operation mode, product adaptation and internationalization timing; affordable loss strengthens the causation–market scope relationship; and precommitment strengthens the causation–operation mode relationship. Flexibility moderates none of these relationships. Notably, where experimentation strengthens the causation–time relationship, it lengthens rather than shortens the internationalization timeline. Causation alone is therefore insufficient to drive several internationalization outcomes, and its complementarity with effectuation proves selective rather than general. Research limitations/implications The cross-sectional design limits causal inferences, and the focus on Thai manufacturing exporters may restrict generalizability. Future longitudinal and comparative studies across different cultural contexts are needed. Practical implications This study offers two sets of practical implications. First, small and medium-sized enterprises managers may benefit from matching decision logic to decision type: product adaptation and entry timing are shaped most strongly by systematic planning, operation-mode choices require experimentation and early partner commitment and market expansion depends on setting clear limits on acceptable loss. Managers may also need to allocate additional time when combining planning with experimentation, because this combination lengthens rather than shortens the path to internationalization. Second, policymakers, educators and export promotion agencies may consider moving beyond generic export planning and providing modular support for product adaptation, pilot entry, partner engagement and affordable-loss-based market exploration. Originality/value This study advances a more fine-grained understanding of internationalization decision-making by showing that the complementarity between causation and effectuation is conditional, mechanism-specific and outcome-specific rather than universal. Whereas prior research has examined causation and effectuation in relation to selected internationalization outcomes (Harms and Schiele, 2012; Galkina and Chetty, 2015) or treated effectuation as a broad logic without distinguishing its constituent dimensions (Deligianni, 2023), this study specifies directional expectations for experimentation, affordable loss and precommitment, while explicitly treating flexibility as nondirectional because prior theory offers competing rationales. The findings show that causation directly shapes product adaptation and internationalization timing, that experimentation, affordable loss and precommitment strengthen its role only in specific dimensions, and that flexibility does not do so at all. The study further identifies a temporal cost of combining decision-making logics: effectual mechanisms lengthen rather than accelerate causal internationalization. Together, these findings extend multidimensional views of SME internationalization (Ruzzier et al., 2007) and refine debates on whether causation and effectuation function as alternative or complementary logics under uncertainty (Sarasvathy, 2001; Kalinic et al., 2014; Chetty et al., 2024).