Magnitude and epicentral uncertainty of historical earthquakes in northeastern Italy from macroseismic data

Historical earthquakes are essential for long-term seismicity and seismic-hazard assessment, but their location and magnitude are often poorly constrained by sparse and uneven intensity data. We apply the Bakun and Wentworth grid-search method to selected Intensity Data Points (IDPs) from DBMI15 for four earthquakes in northeastern Italy, using Mw-calibrated Italian attenuation models. We estimate intensity centres, intensity-based Mw values, and empirical 67% and 95% confidence contours. The resulting maps make the spatial resolution of each macroseismic field explicit and provide a quantitative layer for comparison with CPTI15/Boxer solutions and DISS seismogenic sources.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-08
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22653147
Primary Topic
earthquake and tectonic studies
Type
article
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article

Magnitude and epicentral uncertainty of historical earthquakes in northeastern Italy from macroseismic data

Elisa Varini, Marco Santulin, Emanuela Falcucci, A. A. Gómez Capera et al.
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
earthquake and tectonic studies
article

Magnitude and epicentral uncertainty of historical earthquakes in northeastern Italy from macroseismic data

Elisa Varini, Marco Santulin, Emanuela Falcucci, A. A. Gómez Capera, Stefano Gori
article en

Abstract

Historical earthquakes are essential for long-term seismicity and seismic-hazard assessment, but their location and magnitude are often poorly constrained by sparse and uneven intensity data. We apply the Bakun and Wentworth grid-search method to selected Intensity Data Points (IDPs) from DBMI15 for four earthquakes in northeastern Italy, using Mw-calibrated Italian attenuation models. We estimate intensity centres, intensity-based Mw values, and empirical 67% and 95% confidence contours. The resulting maps make the spatial resolution of each macroseismic field explicit and provide a quantitative layer for comparison with CPTI15/Boxer solutions and DISS seismogenic sources.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (IT), Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Milano (IT), Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche (IT), National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics (IT)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 13%
earthquake and tectonic studies
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