Bayesian updating‐based life‐cycle risk assessment of high‐rise concrete structures considering wind‐induced fatigue: A case study

Abstract High‐rise structures are highly sensitive to wind‐induced vibrations owing to their inherent flexibility. This study proposes a life‐cycle probabilistic risk assessment framework based on Bayesian updating to systematically quantify the impact of wind‐induced fatigue on the long‐term performance degradation of high‐rise structures. A high‐rise reinforced concrete (RC) TV tower exceeding 400 m in height is selected as a case study. Based on long‐term wind speed monitoring data obtained at the site of the case structure, the annual probability of occurrence across different wind speed ranges is quantified. By combining the material S–N curve with the linear cumulative damage criterion, the average annual fatigue damage in each critical material of the structure is evaluated. The unknown parameters of the structural demand model are estimated a posteriori using the Bayesian updating method, and time‐dependent fragility curves along with their confidence intervals are constructed. Furthermore, the regional wind hazard model is integrated to quantify structural failure risk and associated uncertainty. The results indicate that wind‐induced fatigue substantially reduces the wind resistance and structural lifespan, with the failure probability increasing nonlinearly over the service period. Significant differences are observed in the sensitivity of various damage states, and the failure probability of the steel mast under a complete damage state can increase by up to 58.4%. This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for cumulative fatigue effects in the wind‐resistant design of high‐rise structures.