Minimal Intervention in the Criminal Justice System: The Effect of Prosecution Deferrals On Youth Recidivism

Abstract Objective Despite directives to investigate ways to abolish or, at the very least, further reduce the use of pecuniary sanctions for young offenders, fines remain the most common form of justice disposal among young people. This study examines the effects of replacing fines with diversion through prosecution deferrals on recidivism. Method The study utilises administrative data and exploits a shift in prosecutorial decision-making in Sweden as a natural experiment, using a difference-in-differences approach. The reform substantially increased the use of prosecution deferrals at the expense of (low-amount) fines. Recidivism was operationalised as both rearrest and reconviction. Heterogeneity analyses were conducted across three broad categories: demography (sex), socioeconomic status (highest attained parental educational level), and criminal history (prior convictions). Results The findings show no average effect of the reform on recidivism, whether measured by rearrest or reconviction. Analyses stratified by sex, socioeconomic status, and criminal history show little evidence of effect heterogeneity. Conclusion The increased use of prosecution deferrals at the expense of fines had no crime-reducing effect and did not increase recidivism rates. Further reductions in the use of pecuniary sanctions for young offenders committing minor offences therefore appear to pose little risk to crime-reduction objectives. Rather, such a shift may signal societal investment in young individuals and conserve resources for legal authorities.