Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological vulnerability and urbanization in the Greater Bay Area

This study explored the relationship between ecological vulnerability and urbanization in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2020 using pressure-state-response(PSR) framework, the population-economy-society-space(PESS) framework, coupling coordination analysis, bivariate Moran’s I, and geographically weighted regression(GWR). Results showed that ecological vulnerability decreased, with the average ecological vulnerability index declining from 0.2946 in 2000 to 0.2667 in 2020, whereas the urbanization index increased from 0.2667 to 0.3485. Spatially, higher ecological vulnerability was concentrated in the central delta plain, and higher urbanization levels were mainly distributed around the Pearl River Estuary. The coupling coordination degree between ecological conditions and urbanization increased continuously and was dominated by moderately coordinated. In addition, significant spatial associations were observed between ecological vulnerability and multiple dimensions of urbanization. These findings provide scientific support for ecological governance and sustainable urban development in the Greater Bay Area.