LAB #1956 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 32.3% (+0. — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance FAR (>10deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 32.3% (+0.3pp, n=669) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the FAR (>10deg) filter to the current live window would have excluded the two XAUUSD SHORTs (both losses, entries at 4051.79 and 4066.35) and likely the AUDUSD SHORT (loss, 0.69415) if their phase distance fell below threshold. That removes 3 losses from 10 trades, flipping the window from 4W/6L to 4W/3L — a raw win-rate jump from 40% to ~57%. However, the EURJPY SHORT win (184.144) and GBPUSD LONG win (1.33621) may also be filtered if their phase distances were <10deg, which would erase the gain. Net PnL delta is ambiguous because the filter's selectivity is unknown for the winning trades; the +0.3pp backtest gain is too small to dominate this small sample. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a +0.3pp win-rate improvement (32.0→32.3%) is statistically marginal (n=669, SE≈1.8pp), mean Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-08
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22653951
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint