Portfolio optimization of power purchase agreements for RFNBO-certified hydrogen production: a case study of the Netherlands

Hydrogen certified under the Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO) framework is key to decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors. Without renewable baseload generation, its production depends on variable renewable electricity and is exposed to generation uncertainty. This study develops a stochastic portfolio optimization framework to evaluate robust power purchase agreement (PPA) portfolios for hydrogen production under post-2029 RFNBO requirements. It assesses a 100 MW electrolyzer in the Netherlands under three demand configurations: baseload demand of 1 t H 2 /h, an annual target of 2 kt H 2 , and merchant operation. Results show that storage and demand flexibility reduce required PPA capacities and system costs, while PPA prices and electricity market conditions shape portfolio design. A novel overbuild metric quantifies PPA contracting beyond electrolyzer capacity. In merchant operation, overbuild stabilizes after 30% and 50% resale-revenue corrections under moderate and volatile prices, respectively. For baseload demand, correction effects are negligible when PPA prices exceed capture prices.