Impact of Private Educational Choice Policies on Traditional Public School Closures

Private school choice programs have expanded substantially, prompting concern that they may accelerate traditional public school closures. Using longitudinal school-level data covering 1992–2020, this study examines closure probabilities before and after choice program adoption and whether effects vary with program exposure. Event-study, linear probability, and difference-in-differences models show no evidence of abrupt increases in closures following adoption. Modest, delayed increases are concentrated in urban and town schools, while greater program intensity is not systematically associated with higher closure risk. Overall, national evidence does not support claims that private school choice broadly accelerates public school closures.