Spatial distribution modeling of the Barbary sheep (Ammotragus lervia) under current and future climate conditions in the Chihuahuan Desert, Mexico

Context Dryland ecosystems are highly vulnerable to biological invasions because of strong climatic constraints and limited resource availability. In the Chihuahuan Desert, the introduced ungulate Ammotragus lervia represents an increasing conservation concern owing to its potential to alter native communities through ecological interactions and pathogen transmission. Anticipating its response to climate change is essential for assessing future impacts and informing management strategies. Aims This study aimed to (i) estimate the current and future climatically suitable habitats of A. lervia in the Chihuahuan Desert, (ii) quantify spatial and environmental niche overlap with three native ungulates, and (iii) assess potential expansion and risks within protected areas under multiple climate scenarios. Methods Occurrence records were compiled from multiple biodiversity databases and subjected to rigorous cleaning and spatial filtering. Ecological niche models were developed in MaxEnt by using the kuenm workflow with CHELSA climatic variables and CMIP6 climate projections under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) spanning constransting levels of future climate forcing: SSP126 (low forcing), SSP370 (high forcing), and SSP585 (very high forcing). Candidate models were selected using partial ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic), omission rates (≤5%), and Akaike information criterion for small sample sizes (AICc), whereas area under the curve (AUC) and TSS (True Skill Statistic) were used only as complementary measures. Niche overlap was quantified using Schoener’s D, and changes in suitable habitat and protected-area overlap were evaluated from binary suitability maps. Key results Models showed high predictive performance (mean AUC = 0.875 ± 0.022). Current climatically suitable area for A. lervia covered 233,571 km2 and remained extensive under future climate scenarios, with non-monotonic net changes ranging from −5.0 to +8.5%. In contrast, native ungulates showed stronger and more scenario-dependent responses, particularly O. hemionus, for which suitable area declined by 21.7–50.2%, and O. canadensis mexicana, which shifted from projected expansion under SSP126 and SSP370 to a 55.6% contraction under SSP585. Climatic niche overlap with A. lervia was moderate (D = 0.16–0.22), although spatial overlap remained extensive and persisted in mountainous regions under all scenarios. Conclusions Ammotragus lervia is likely to sustain a stable and potentially expanding distribution under climate change, contrasting with the more limited responses of native ungulates. Persistent climatic suitability and geographic overlap identify protected areas where ecological interactions may become more likely under future projections. These areas should therefore be considered priorities for monitoring, early detection, and adaptive management. Implications Results support spatially explicit management focused on high-risk areas, particularly mountainous refugia and protected areas, integrating climatic projections with long-term ecological monitoring to improve invasion prevention and conservation planning.