NATO’s evolution and European security dynamics

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has transformed dramatically since the end of the Cold War. As a collective defense alliance, it was primarily focused on defending itself against the Soviet Union. NATO is now focused on addressing multiple types of threats: traditional, hybrid, and non-traditional. This study uses a qualitative methodological approach that includes a systematic content review of NATO’s Strategic Concepts from to 1991–2022; NATO Summit Communiques; NATO Defense Planning Guidance and Elite Speeches. This allows us to analyse the causes and effects of NATO’s transformation over time. Our results suggest that because of Russia’s actions as a “revisionist” state, NATO has reverted to focusing on collective defence. However, NATO has also broadened its operational scope to counter new forms of cyber and hybrid threats [ 27 ]. While NATO has improved its deterrence capabilities through adaptation and the cohesiveness of its members has increased, significant problems remain. These include differences in burden sharing by member countries, differing views among member countries regarding how much political independence they want from their relationship with the United States, and increasing levels of tension regarding the potential trade-off between greater strategic autonomy for Europe versus increased dependence upon the U.S. Ultimately, this study concludes that NATO’s relevance in an increasingly unpredictable global security environment will be determined by whether it can maintain a political coalition that supports both military deterrence and innovation in technology and strategic thinking.