Assessing spatial heterogeneity of short-term rentals in a compact tourism district: evidence from İstanbul

Short-term rental (STR) platforms are reshaping housing markets and regulatory agendas, yet compact tourism districts in emerging contexts remain underexamined. This study investigates the spatial determinants of Airbnb distribution in Beyoğlu, İstanbul, using sequential OLS-GWR-MGWR modelling to assess whether STR patterns reflect localized dynamics or broader structural gradients. Results indicate moderate but systematic spatial heterogeneity. GWR improves model fit over OLS, revealing gradients of accessibility, touristic amenities, human capital, and housing indicators, while MGWR offers no additional gain, suggesting limited multiscale differentiation within Beyoğlu’s compact and monocentric tourism structure. STR intensity concentrates along smooth structural gradients rather than sharp neighbourhood discontinuities. Accessibility and amenity effects are strongest in adjacent transition areas, signalling emerging pressure zones beyond the saturated historic core. Education is negatively associated with STR intensity. The findings provide an empirical basis for spatially differentiated, zone-based STR regulation tailored to compact inner-city tourism districts in regulatory transition contexts.