Impact on the Health of Older Adults Exposed to PM10 and PM2.5 Emitted in a Metropolis with High Sugarcane and Ethanol Production: Scenario Evaluation

Abstract We conducted a Health Impact Assessment (HIA) of the older adult population (≥ 60 years) exposed to PM 10 and PM 2.5 , whose main emission sources are associated with sugarcane production. First, we characterized the local atmosphere using the PM 2.5 /O 3 ratio, which was 0.15 in 2018 and 0.16 in 2019, with PM 2.5 and O 3 data measured at ground stations and available on the Qualidade do Ar (Qualar) platform. These ratios indicated low levels of PM 2.5 . Biomass burning during sugarcane harvests increases the formation of tropospheric O 3 . For the HIA, we collected PM 10 data (2010–2013 and 2017–2019) and PM 2.5 data (2017–2019) from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) and Qualar. We used a statistical correction model to align MERRA-2 data with Qualar ground measurements for daily, weekly, and monthly periods, with the monthly period showing the best statistical metrics. We built three predictive scenarios: 1 (Qualar), 2 (MERRA-2), and 3 (Corrected). Scenario 3 showed the highest number of deaths and hospital admissions, while scenario 2 underestimated both PM concentrations and the impact on health. We recommend the implementation of public policies focused on reducing emissions in intensive agricultural areas, considering that Brazil is the largest producer of sugarcane in the world. Highlights The effects of PM 10 and PM 2.5 on the health of the elderly estimated using AirQ+. Higher O 3 concentrations compared to PM 2.5 levels in Ribeirão Preto, Brazil. Validation of PM 10 and PM 2.5 data based on concentrations obtained from MERRA-2. Highest PM 10 and PM 2.5 concentrations observed during winter (June-September). Monitoring air quality in sugarcane areas to eliminate fires.