Spatial network analysis of the association between population shrinkage and economic resilience

As two critical dimensions of regional responses to structural crises, population shrinkage and economic resilience are intrinsically interconnected in their theoretical foundations. However, the complex network mechanisms underlying their interconnection remain inadequately explored. This study investigates the networked linkage mechanisms between regional population shrinkage and economic resilience, using Northeast China as a representative case. It employs a comprehensive methodology, including the resilience proxy approach, gravity model, vector autoregression (VAR) model, Granger causality tests, and social network analysis (SNA), to systematically construct regional population shrinkage and economic resilience networks. Furthermore, Quadratic Assignment Procedure (QAP) regression analysis is employed to examine the correlation patterns between these two dimensions at both network and node levels. The main findings are as follows: (1) Northeast China exhibits a widespread trend of population shrinkage, with Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces being the most significantly affected. As the central city of Jilin, Changchun demonstrates a pronounced siphoning effect, intensifying population loss in surrounding regions. The economic resilience index across the region displays an overall decline yet exhibits considerable spatial heterogeneity: Heilongjiang shows marked internal disparities, whereas Jilin and Liaoning provinces demonstrate convergent downward trajectories. (2) The spatial linkage structures of the population shrinkage network and the economic resilience network demonstrate substantial dissimilarities. In the population shrinkage network, provincial capitals and regional hub cities function as core nodes, exhibiting high network centrality. Conversely, the economic resilience network is predominantly sustained by resource-based cities as pivotal nodes. Owing to industrial path dependence, these cities have developed distinctive regional mutual-support mechanisms, which contribute to maintaining high network centrality. (3) The relationship between the population shrinkage network and the economic resilience network exhibits a clear spatial scale effect. QAP analysis at the full-network level reveals a weak and statistically insignificant correlation, indicating that the two networks have evolved through relatively independent pathways. However, at the node level, nine cities display statistically significant correlations, five exhibiting positive associations and four demonstrating negative relationships, reflecting differentiated urban resilience mechanisms in responding to population shrinkage. The policy implications indicate that enhancing economic resilience and mitigating population shrinkage necessitate regionally differentiated strategies. Core cities should reinforce coordinated development mechanisms to harness agglomeration advantages, while resource-based cities must overcome path dependency and foster new drivers of resilience through industrial diversification and innovation. This study offers a novel analytical framework and a robust decision-making foundation for deciphering the complex interactions within population-economy systems and advancing sustainable regional development.