Evaluating Effectiveness and Economic Benefits of Meteorological Health Warning Systems: A Case Study of Stroke Warnings in Tianjin, China

Abstract Meteorological health warning systems have received global attention for their role in climate health adaptation. However, existing evaluation studies rarely considered nonlinear and time-lagged relationships between meteorological factors and health outcomes. Calculations of economic benefits have not fully accounted for labor losses, nor the impact on other economic sectors. To develop a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of meteorological health warning systems, we incorporated warning variable into the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and health outcomes such as hospital admissions. We also estimated savings in hospitalization expenses, economic benefits of avoiding labor losses, and impacts on other economic sectors. Using Tianjin’s stroke meteorological risk warning system as a case, the results show that the warnings have effectively alleviated burdens on insurance providers and patient households, and avoided labor losses. From January 2021 to September 2022, an average of 6.92% stroke hospital admissions were reduced in four warning periods. It resulted in savings of USD 2.66 million of the government and USD 849.9 thousand of residents. Through avoiding labor losses, four warnings generated economic benefit of USD 1.61 million. When the saved expenses and avoided labor losses were incorporated into the input-output model, scenario analysis suggested potential increase in economic gross output of USD 5.76 million, indicating extensive impacts on other economic sectors. Future refined effectiveness and economic benefits evaluation could facilitate further deployment and optimization of meteorological health warning systems.