The Role of Car Ownership in Sustainable Urban Transport: LRT Adoption in Kerman, Iran

New Light Rail Transit (LRT) systems are frequently promoted as a means of reducing car dependence and supporting urban sustainability; however, their effectiveness depends on how different traveller segments respond to LRT relative to competing modes. This study examines whether car owners and non-car owners exhibit distinct preference structures and policy sensitivities towards a proposed LRT system in Kerman, Iran. A stated-preference mode-choice survey conducted in November 2023 generated 1916 valid choice observations, including 955 observations from car owners and 961 from non-car owners, based on 736 completed questionnaires. Multinomial Logit (MNL), Nested Logit (NL), and Mixed Logit (MXL) models were estimated separately for each segment. Policy implications were assessed using elasticities, marginal effects, and scenario-based simulations. The results show that, for car owners, the MXL specification provides a slightly better statistical fit, indicating modest preference heterogeneity, while the main behavioural conclusions remain consistent across model structures. For non-car owners, the NL model performs best, revealing clearer substitution between public-transport modes (bus/LRT) and on-demand services (taxi/ride-hailing). Although LRT shows a negative baseline preference, particularly among car owners, its uptake increases substantially with improved LRT travel-time performance and higher private-car operating costs. Overall, improving LRT travel-time competitiveness is critical for both groups, while attracting car owners additionally requires coordinated measures that raise the generalised cost of private-car use and strengthen the relative advantage of LRT. These findings highlight the importance of segment-sensitive policy design for maximising the contribution of LRT to sustainable urban transport and long-term urban sustainability.