LAB #1945 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 32.0% to 44.2% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 32.0% to 44.2% (+12.2pp, n=120) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ACCUMULATION filter to the current live window would have blocked the two XAUUSD SHORTs (both losses) and the EURJPY SHORT (a win), plus the GBPUSD SHORT (loss). That removes 4 trades: 3 losses and 1 win. Net effect: win rate in this window would rise from 4/9 (44.4%) to 4/5 (80%), and PnL would improve by roughly +2R (avoiding ~3R of losses, sacrificing ~1R of win). However, the EURUSD SHORT (currently open) and USDJPY SHORT (rejected) would remain unaffected, so the improvement is real but small-sample. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, a +12.2pp win-rate gain on n=120 suggests a genuine regime filter, but the risk is overfitting to a single quarterly phase. If ACCUMULATION is rare (e.g., 20% of quarters), you'll trade far less, which may cut total PnL despite higher win ra Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com