Identifying Optimal Locations for Primary Wood Processing Mills and their Potential Support in New Job Creation in Arkansas

Abstract Arkansas has experienced a decline in the number of primary wood processing mills (PWPMs) despite maintaining relatively stable roundwood production, raising concerns about efficient utilization of surplus forest resources and long-term forest management. This study identified suitable and optimal locations for establishing new PWPMs in Arkansas using a GIS-based fuzzy multi-criteria analysis integrated with location-allocation modeling. Site suitability was evaluated using constraint and preference layers representing land use restrictions, flood hazards, transportation infrastructure, electric transmission lines, labor availability, market access, and terrain characteristics. Candidate locations were subsequently evaluated using a p-median location-allocation model that incorporated existing mills, surplus forest resources, hauling distance, and mill capacity. Potential employment opportunities and hauling costs were also estimated for medium- and large-sized softwood- and hardwood-processing mills. Approximately 11% of Arkansas was identified as highly suitable for PWPM establishment, with highly suitable locations concentrated primarily in the Ozark Highlands and Mississippi Alluvial Plain regions. The location-allocation analysis selected 12 medium-sized and 9 large-sized softwood-processing mill locations and 32 medium-sized and 20 large-sized hardwood-processing mill locations. Medium-sized mills utilized a greater proportion of surplus forest resources than large-sized mills. Estimated employment potential was substantially greater for softwood-processing mills than hardwood-processing mills, while hauling costs varied among candidate locations and increased proportionally under higher transportation cost scenarios. The framework developed in this study provides a spatially explicit approach for evaluating future PWPM locations and may support investment planning, forest industry development, and resource utilization in Arkansas.