Spatiotemporal Evolution and Obstacle Factor Analysis of Agricultural Heritage System Resilience: A Case Study of Xinjiang, China

Arid-zone agricultural heritage systems (AHSs) face severe challenges from ecological fragility, water scarcity, and socioeconomic pressures; scientifically understanding their system resilience is a critical prerequisite for achieving sustainable development. This study constructs a three-dimensional resilience evaluation indicator system following the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) framework tailored to arid oasis conditions. Drawing on the entropy weight method, GIS spatial analysis, the ARIMA model, and the obstacle degree model, it adopts statistical and remote sensing data of Xinjiang from 2015 to 2024 to systematically analyze the resilience levels, spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, future development trends, and core obstacle factors of six AHSs. The results reveal that the overall resilience of AHSs in Xinjiang exhibited a fluctuating upward trend over the decade, showing an obvious spatial differentiation pattern of “high in Northern Xinjiang, low in Eastern and Southern Xinjiang.” ARIMA forecasting indicates that resilience will maintain a positive growth trajectory from 2025 to 2028, yet inter-site hierarchical gaps persist. The primary constraints hindering resilience improvement include industrial structure upgrading index, per capita regional GDP, annual NDVI, vegetation coverage, and the number of intangible cultural heritage items, with a clear differentiation between long-term structural bottlenecks and temporary short-term constraints. The study concludes that, although the resilience of AHSs in Xinjiang possesses long-term improvement potential, persistent challenges such as fragile ecological foundations, low-end industrial structures, and insufficient cultural inheritance remain prominent. Targeted differentiated strategies—short-term emergency regulation, medium-term industrial–cultural integration, and long-term adaptive governance—are therefore required to enhance systemic resilience in the future. These findings enrich empirical research on AHS resilience in arid regions and provide case references for the scientific conservation, revitalized utilization, and sustainable development of AHSs in Xinjiang and other global dryland areas.