LAB #1934 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.9% to 38.2% (+6.2pp, n=618 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.9% to 38.2% (+6.2pp, n=618) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the NY_OPEN filter to the current live window would have excluded the two XAUUSD SHORTs (11:20 and 09:55 CET) and the EURJPY SHORT (10:35 CET) — all three are outside NY_OPEN (which typically spans 14:30–21:00 CET). Of those excluded, one was a WIN (EURJPY) and two were LOSSES (XAUUSD), so the filter would have removed a net -1 trade from the sample. The remaining trades (GBPUSD SHORT at 11:00, EURJPY LONG at 18:00, GBPUSD LONG at 20:00, AUDUSD SHORT at 11:35, GBPUSD LONG at 14:05, EURUSD SHORT at 11:45, USDJPY SHORT at 02:01) would have kept 4 wins, 2 losses, and 1 open/rejected — improving the live win rate from ~57% (4/7 closed) to ~67% (4/6 closed) in this tiny sample, but the PnL delta is negligible given the small n and mixed outcomes. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +6.2pp win-rate Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-07
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22629946
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #1934 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.9% to 38.2% (+6.2pp, n=618 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #1934 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.9% to 38.2% (+6.2pp, n=618 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.9% to 38.2% (+6.2pp, n=618) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the NY_OPEN filter to the current live window would have excluded the two XAUUSD SHORTs (11:20 and 09:55 CET) and the EURJPY SHORT (10:35 CET) — all three are outside NY_OPEN (which typically spans 14:30–21:00 CET). Of those excluded, one was a WIN (EURJPY) and two were LOSSES (XAUUSD), so the filter would have removed a net -1 trade from the sample. The remaining trades (GBPUSD SHORT at 11:00, EURJPY LONG at 18:00, GBPUSD LONG at 20:00, AUDUSD SHORT at 11:35, GBPUSD LONG at 14:05, EURUSD SHORT at 11:45, USDJPY SHORT at 02:01) would have kept 4 wins, 2 losses, and 1 open/rejected — improving the live win rate from ~57% (4/7 closed) to ~67% (4/6 closed) in this tiny sample, but the PnL delta is negligible given the small n and mixed outcomes. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +6.2pp win-rate Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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