LAB #1934 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.9% to 38.2% (+6.2pp, n=618 — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Session = NY_OPEN — improves win rate from 31.9% to 38.2% (+6.2pp, n=618) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the NY_OPEN filter to the current live window would have excluded the two XAUUSD SHORTs (11:20 and 09:55 CET) and the EURJPY SHORT (10:35 CET) — all three are outside NY_OPEN (which typically spans 14:30–21:00 CET). Of those excluded, one was a WIN (EURJPY) and two were LOSSES (XAUUSD), so the filter would have removed a net -1 trade from the sample. The remaining trades (GBPUSD SHORT at 11:00, EURJPY LONG at 18:00, GBPUSD LONG at 20:00, AUDUSD SHORT at 11:35, GBPUSD LONG at 14:05, EURUSD SHORT at 11:45, USDJPY SHORT at 02:01) would have kept 4 wins, 2 losses, and 1 open/rejected — improving the live win rate from ~57% (4/7 closed) to ~67% (4/6 closed) in this tiny sample, but the PnL delta is negligible given the small n and mixed outcomes. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +6.2pp win-rate Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-07
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22629946
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint