Energy Penalty, Financial Burden, and Fiscal Risk of Biosafety Ventilation Policies in Educational Buildings: A Probabilistic Analysis Under Market Volatility

Enforcing aggressive outdoor ventilation in public schools across hot and humid regions creates a steep, often unmanageable financial burden. While high air change rates (such as 5.0 air changes per hour, ACH) lower pathogen transmission risks, the resulting moisture condensation loads substantially increase electricity bills. In this study, we assessed the energy demand, 10-year Life Cycle Cost (LCC), and budget risk of post-pandemic ventilation mandates in a university building in Montería, Colombia (Köppen Aw climate). We calibrated a transient building energy simulation (BES) model using empirical utility data (MBE = +1.8%, CV-RMSE = 4.2%) to compare four operational strategies: standard code baseline (Scenario A, 1.2 ACH under ASHRAE 62.1-2022), Outdoor Air Dilution (Scenario B, 5.0 ACH), in-room HEPA Cleaning (Scenario C, 1.2 ACH outdoor air plus 3.8 ACH clean recirculation), and Energy Recovery Ventilation (Scenario D, 5.0 ACH with a 65% sensible and latent enthalpy wheel). Outdoor Air Dilution triggered a 2.26-fold increase in HVAC electricity demand, generating an annual deficit of $115,725 and adding 135.3 metric tons of CO2eq per building because latent dehumidification represented 43.5% of total operating expenses. A 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation under volatile electricity tariffs (sigma = 15%) revealed a 95% Value at Risk (VaR) of $148,438/year. Over a 10-year horizon, Outdoor Air Dilution accumulates $1.635 million in present-value costs, whereas localized HEPA Filtration delivers equivalent protection for $0.765 million, saving $0.870 million (a 90.3% policy deficit reduction). These results suggest that blanket outdoor ventilation mandates clash directly with public school decarbonization and fiscal solvency goals. Building codes in tropical regions should instead promote decoupled systems that combine baseline fresh air with localized particle filtration.